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Sales Trends Context & Methodology

Quick Background

  • This dataset is meant to serve as an additional input into the hobby research process.
  • We don’t claim to be an instant authority, but we’ve put in the work to thoughtfully evaluate and present the data.

Considerations

  • One of the resources we make use of are listing titles. Titles include typos, missing details, poor formatting, and attempts to game the system. We've put in the work to account for these issues, but there will always be room for improvement.
  • Different tools and sites take different approaches to parsing and analyzing this data. We welcome any sort of analysis that complements or challenges our findings.
  • Some margin of error is inevitable, and we welcome feedback and questions if something looks off.
  • We recognize the current dataset only represents the largest marketplace and high-price cards may transact elsewhere. We are okay with this limitation to start as we think this is a useful proxy nonetheless. That said, it's certainly a consideration, especially if one sale can alter a market.

Sales data nuance

  • To the degree possible, we are only making use of sales that have been paid for.
  • To the degree possible, we are using the value for which the item was sold (i.e. not the listed ask etc).

Total spend can be hard to come by; we believe it's a very useful tool

  • Card prices do not necessarily reflect player momentum
  • Indices and card prices can be very useful, but don’t always reflect collector interest or momentum.
  • Total spend (money flowing into or out of a player's market) can also be a tool to evaluate momentum.

Dilution is a massive hobby headwind

  • Building on the prior point - one of the biggest challenges in the hobby is dilution.
  • In particular with active players, more options are likely to become available over time. This can result in money moving out of a high profile proxy card into another suitable option.
  • That said, a player's marquee card prices may decline even as total spend on that player increases — a sign of broadening interest across more SKUs.

Player Comparisons & Collectibility

  • This dataset aims to offer a frame of reference for how collectible a player is relative to others.
  • Player comparison today is often done by comparing marquee/flagship card prices. This is a useful starting point, but it can have limitations.
  • Our hope is that this dataset can help to highlight shifts in demand, which may be hard to see in prices alone.

Summary

  • This data should be viewed as directionally correct and one of many tools in your hobby research.
  • Context is always shifting, especially when comparing across eras, sets, and formats.
  • Our goal is to surface useful insights, not to provide definitive answers.
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